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I am focussing now to the interval given that the beginning of 2004, due to the fact there is no controversy about what was taking place before that. Everyone agrees that, prior to the 2nd quarter of 2004, Saudi Arabia experienced a minimum of some spare capacity and was acting because the swing producer. The regions I have labelled, and a quick description of dialogue to this point are as follows. A:
From November 2004 to January 2005, There exists a sudden and rather sharp drop in production by about 350kbd. This coincides with a sharp value break down from $45 to $35 (In this particular collection which is mostly a little bit reduce the the oft quoted NYMEX entrance thirty day period, or West Texas Intermediate spot value) I believe at this time Euan and I are in comparatively near agreement that this might be a little something along the lines of "Phew, price ranges are dropping, let's rest many of our additional drained/problematic wells."
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In order that implies the difference between the crimson regions (20% water saturation) within the simulation picture over as well as the inexperienced areas (60% h2o saturation) could be very big.
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It does not look to me that, from a timing point of view, this phenomenon is well positioned to explain any declines that offset whatsoever portion of the 690kbd of Qatif megaproject manufacturing came on in late 2004 and early 2005 (zones B-D).